April emerged as an exceptional month for Bitcoin , with the cryptocurrency staging a sharp recovery from a downturn that had occurred earlier in the month. After skimming perilously close to a low of $74,901, the token’s worth had not seen anything lower since 2025, it bounced back hard. A 14.7% surge in the asset’s price took it back up to more optimistic levels, and even a recent spate of negative Bitcoin news couldn’t keep the asset down. The rebound, which many are now calling a ”rally,” was sparked by something that is quite common in finance: the easing of concerns over macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin Gained 14.7% in April $BTC climbed 14.7% in April, recovering from a sharp early-month decline that pushed the price to $74,901, the lowest level so far in 2025. The rebound came as concerns over the tariff war and broader economic pessimism began to ease. The rally has… pic.twitter.com/AlPFIjkjQx — CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) April 30, 2025 This intense increase has brought back to the forefront the discussions around the possible development pathway of Bitcoin in the next few months. A whole set of important elements that could act as price movers one way or another are now at play. And from these, three distinct scenarios have emerged that could shape the next phase of Bitcoin’s market performance. In short, will it keep going up, or face a near-term correction? The answer depends on a variety of things, but mostly on macroeconomic conditions and on-chain metrics. Bitcoin Gained 14.7% in April $BTC climbed 14.7% in April, recovering from a sharp early-month decline that pushed the price to $74,901, the lowest level so far in 2025. The rebound came as concerns over the tariff war and broader economic pessimism began to ease. The rally has… pic.twitter.com/AlPFIjkjQx — CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) April 30, 2025 Three Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next Rally As Bitcoin moves further into May, analysts are outlining three possible scenarios that could dictate its price action in the coming months. The first scenario is the most optimistic: a bull market. According to on-chain data, Bitcoin’s momentum is currently in what is termed the “start rally” zone, with a ratio of approximately 0.8, or 80%. Should the on-chain ratio break through 1.0 and hold above it, Bitcoin could experience a significant price increase, with targets reaching between $150,000 to $175,000. This would mirror previous cycles observed in 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin experienced substantial rallies. In this scenario, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metrics would likely show a new impulse, signaling a bullish continuation. The second, and more probable, scenario is consolidation. If the on-chain momentum remains in the 0.8 to 1.0 range, Bitcoin’s price could enter a wide trading corridor between $90,000 and $110,000. In this scenario, market participants would hold their positions but not significantly increase exposure, leading to a more stable, yet stagnant, market. While this would allow for some growth, it would not trigger a parabolic rise like the previous bull run scenarios. Finally, the worst-case scenario entertains the notion of a correction. Should Bitcoin’s on-chain ratio slip beneath 0.75, we could see the short-term holders take profits, thus pushing us down further into the $70K to $85K range (if we even hit that range). This is another unlikely occurrence given that we already had a pretty decent-sized correction earlier this year. Bitcoin is warming up: Three scenarios that could shape the next rally “As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the 'start' rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 / 80%). Let's examine three scenarios for the next six months: 1. Optimistic (Bull) If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds… pic.twitter.com/SlWx2UGg27 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2025 Bitcoin ETFs See Mixed Results as Market Sentiment Shifts In the wider marketplace, institutional investment in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been affected by the price fluctuations of Bitcoin. The total net outflow of the Bitcoin spot ETFs on April 30 amounted to $56.23 million, which indicates a somewhat adverse shift in the institutional sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. Nevertheless, during this apparent downturn, one notable exception was BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, known as IBIT. IBIT was the only fund in the Bitcoin ETF universe that experienced any kind of net inflow during the observed period. On April 30, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $56.23 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT being the only fund to record a net inflow. Ethereum spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $2.36 million, with only Fidelity’s FETH posting a net inflow. https://t.co/Hj2Gs49bWa — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 1, 2025 The capital outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs could have a variety of sources, including that of some investors taking profits after having built up positions in Bitcoin during its earlier price rallies. The very recent withdrawal may also be a reflection of the kind of investor caution you would expect to see ahead of an uncertain big economic or regulatory event. Bitcoin’s Resilience and Future Outlook Binary options trading is a unique and highly popular means of trading in the global financial markets. Unlike traditional options trading, which requires the trader to make complex calculations based on various parameters to determine the potential profitability of a trade, binary options trading requires very little understanding of the market or the forms of profit involved. In fact, the only condition necessary for a trader to successfully engage in binary options trading is the ability to correctly predict whether an option will end up “in the money” (profitable) or “out of the money” (not profitable) at the time of expiration. The larger market is still coping with the change in the economic tide, but the Bitcoin price it seems is signaling the next big bull run could well be underway. The trader and investment community will, of course, be watching not just the price of Bitcoin but the on-chain metrics, ETF movements, and the broader economic landscape for signs of the cryptocurrency’s next big price move. In any case, right now, several things Bitcoin could do in the next few months look very promising indeed. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. 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